Comment: Most major indices were down modestly. Volume was down a little bit on the previous day. On the SP500, today’s candle was a narrow range, inside day. Not much conviction one way or the other, with the bears just a little stronger on the day.
NewHighs/NewLows 63/38. NH>NL. The ratio of NH/(NH+NL) is at 62.4%. Out of the Do Not Sell Zone. The ratio is about mid-range. The NLs are continuing to show nervousness amongst the punters. Still – nothing drastic yet.
Technical Comment on the SP500:
The SP500 finished at 1408.75. Support/resistance: 1365/1419 MACD Histogram. Below zero. Negative. MACD. Below zero. Negative. RSI.9 is at 29.8. Very Oversold. Stochastic. 11.8. Oversold. CCI.14: -154.2. Oversold.
The medium term trend is down. The short term trend is down. Long term trend (from October, 2012) is still up.
Indicators on the daily chart are now into oversold territory.
The case for a rebound is getting stronger. Indicators are now oversold. The chart is close to a supporting oblique down trend line from late September. Today’s “no conviction” day sets up the possibility of an up day tomorrow or the day after (if tomorrow is another fizzier like today). So it might all depend on Apple Inc. that reports after the market closes on Thursday. Here’s the Apple chart:
The bullish case: the chart is in a downsloping wedge – which typically breaks to the upside. Close to major support of the 150-Day EMA.
The bearish case: the past four days have formed a bear flag – typically breaks to the downside. Volume flows suggest distribution – volume on the past two down days have been heavier than the past two up days.
50-50?? Indicators have flattened out. Yes: 50-50. It looks like the Apple report will be crucial to Apple’s direction. And since Apple is the largest stock in America – probably crucial to the direction of the market. (Ahhh, c'mon Red - can't you be more prescient? Get a crystal ball, ya mug.)
Australia today? The Oz Dollar is higher, +0.86%, so money flows might put a floor under the market. Base metals are flat overnight +0.06%. Copper up a little, +0.35%. U.S.$ Gold down a little, -0.34%. BHP was up +0.64%, floating higher on the back of the stronger Ozzie dollar. Westpac was up +0.76%. Stripping out the benefit of the higher Ozzie dollar those two stocks are more or less flat. So it looks like a lack lustre day for the Australian stock market today. Let’s see how it goes. Any strong move one way or another might be an attempt to pre-empt market moves in Europe and the U.S. tonight depending on the intelligence reports the big players get during the day.
Just by the way: Mr Ichimoku says "bearish" for the Apple chart.
(20min delay)