Things ain't getting better, page-2

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27/01/25

12:43

Post #: 77573616
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Originally posted by alonso ↑

Nobody probably remembers the old jazz standard, "Things are getting better". Doesn't matter coz they ain't anyway.

""Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant. The reason this is relevant is that since 1990, this thirty-four year correlation is consistent with the U.S. experience where data has been available for seven decades. As such, CAPU appears to be the dominant supply-side variable in determining inflation in the United States, China, Japan, U.K. and the EU.CAPU – At Recessionary LevelsIn the United States, CAPU has plummeted to levels lower than at the start of all of the cyclical recessions since 1967 (Chart 1). This vividly reflects a significant underutilization of resources, a circumstance which has historically led to moderating economic growth. Based on nearly complete fourth quarter 2024 data, the U.S. CAPU is estimated to have been 76.9%, a significant 3.2 percentage points lower than the post-1967 average and 6 percentage points below the historical level of 82.9%, which is the average entry level for the cyclical recessions. This surplus capacity reflects an irregular cyclical decline in industrial production from the fall of 2022."

https://mishtalk.com/economics/lacy...pacity-glut-and-the-mish-recession-indicator/

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Baltic Dry chart is less than 50% of what it was 20 years ago and still dropping

Which means in effect = China trade way down and trouble
Trump does not have to worry abut tariffs as there will be nothing to produce if trend continues
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