Things that make me go Mmmmmm, page-30

I've explained myself on HC since 2006, so forgive me if I don;t write my life story here again. What I do on HC is much like what lifesavers, scout masters, car club enthusiasts etc do donating their time and experience to a community of their particular hobby. Some people life the beach, some like camping, some like tinkering with cars... I like running my knuckles over resource projects and sharing those opinions on HC for the benefit of others and myself. I get better at my hobby doing it, I get a kick out of being right calling the market wrong, I enjoy a bit of banter with angry bulls, it keeps the grey matter working (use it or lose it).

Everybody has their own angle for posting on HC, 99% are holders here to read confirmational bias and help bring in more buyers to push their stock up obviously. Some sew fear hoping to in buy cheaper, some traders flip posts between the two. What I've seen no evidence of is the apocryphal 'paid downramper' shorting penny dreadfuls for a future TO or on behalf of the Chinese government to protect their dominance in the market Naked shorting of speccy juniors is almost non-existent outside those front-running CR's knowing they will be re-filled to cover by their broker mates risk free. ARR is a classic example of this, as per the last CR. After the Cr was announced, ~4M shares were sold around 30c over the few days before 29th Feb when Cr shares were issued... obviously some holders didn't want to risk waiting for their shares to sell out, and fair enough given the price dropped to 24c before the Cr shares hit placement accounts.


Otherwise, 1.2M shares were shorted Apr 12 when ARR bounced back above Cr price to a 32c double-top, which is some smart assed broker using their ability to short (retail has no hope of shorting speccy's) for a nice trade imo (shorts are 4 trading days delayed so find out soon whether this one covered or not). There is half billion shares on issue, ARR was run up from 13c to 43c on an epic pump by Swartz in the US best as I can tell. Well done to all who were long mid Feb, your all still sitting on 100% gain from then. Profit takers, traders playing the charts, placement holders with second thoughts, question marks over the savage sell down to 23c from 45c after the CR, question marks over the sell down from 32c 15th Mar to 23c again after the SS dropped Mon 18th... all this understandably leads to some doubts about just how world class and solid the prospects are for ARR?


So who you gonna call for technical review of what's really going on with a highly technical project? Swartz... he's going to piss in your pocket like all MDs about how great it is. The brokers who tipped clients in at 30c... stop it. Maybe just rely on some of the bat sheet crazy opinions of those blathering away on HC while adding zero knowledge or information the situation? OK, so I've been around HC since 2006 and don;t mind stirring the pot for a reaction while making my opinions known... maybe I'm working for the Chinese government?

Here's an idea. Block out the name, holding, sentiment of posters and just focus on quality of substantive evidence and opinions brough to the thread, or complete lack thereof. After filtering out the meaningless noisy posts, then overlay substantive opinions with the price chart and test whether the valuable bullish or bearish posts are being backed by the market (money talks right). More often than not, the 'smart money' in the know are correct so far as the price direction is concerned, which is really hat most on HC want to know.

Keep in mind between SS and DFS and then actual development reality heaps of variables can change for better or worse. It's not necessary to make a definitive call early, just to get a feel for the risks for/against a happy outcome and the share price movement over the journey (and developers can have a VERY long journey indeed...)

GLTAH