Hi Waiken. It's typical post-CR for shorts to increase. Moving from 0% to 0.38% probably indicates a significant holder, institutional or sophisticated, is hedging. There's no cause for concern at this point. If we see an increase to 2%, I wouldn't be surprised. Today's data will likely show an uptick. Only if shorts go beyond 5%, then there's a significant cause for concern for short to medium-term SP performance.
ARU has been short-sold over 6.5%, increasing approximately 1.5% over the last month or so if memory serves, which isn't surprising given their situation. I don’t see a viable path for ARU to become a producer unless oxide prices rise well above $130kg. With the ASX bots relentlessly manipulating our SP, our two QX listings, and the more regulated US markets with recent US volume increases, it seems likely that Don will want to pull the trigger going all in on NASDAQ sooner rather than later, increasing visibility/SP performance and could mitigate a cheap buyout pre-PFS. Tick tock Don! Since the upgrade to the ARRNF listing and PEA, I've had the feeling Don was planning to list on NASDAQ post-PFS but must pull that trigger ASAP to benefit shareholders and the aspirations of us becoming a producer.
My major concern for ARR, as it is for you, is that we're vulnerable to a buyout below $1, probably around 65-80c. Investors too often lack foresight, and probably would be inclined to vote in favour if/when such an offer eventuates. I've previously mentioned that the outcome heavily leans towards Hill and management, and whether they encourage or discourage shareholders to accept or reject. I anticipate strong arguments against accepting a lowball offer, but again lack of foresight, and short-term gains tend to win out. I doubt Hill would support such lowballing. If we reach the PFS stage and the current outlook continues, we’ll either become a producer or receive a modest $2 takeover offer. At that point, I’m uncertain how Hill would vote.
The imminent recession would greatly benefit us in the long term especially post-NASDAQ from a buy-out vantage point. However, your experience with such TO situations doesn't give me confidence in us reaching the PFS/$2 stage. The sector is indeed consolidating, and I foresee fewer than a handful of new producers in the West by the 2030s, subject to some mergers as well, so that may be overly optimistic. I foresee a LYC/MP merger at some point, even though those discussions have ended, especially with Rinehart having recently taken a position in LYC/MP. As that merger unfolds, LYC will naturally set their sights on ARR. (ALL IMO).
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