Gina is hardly the sharpest investor, more money than sense some might say. Following her son into Vulcan, buying up LionTwon >$3, taking a big placement in ARU etc. Brings interest and hope to the RE market obviously, because whatever her motives she believes there is upside for RE prices. So far as LYC and MP are concerned, I can't see the rationale other than creating a ex-China monopoly like giant that can squeeze better prices and subsidies out of the US and rest of the west.
The RE market already acts like a monopoly with China dictating supply and prices (not a perfect art, not sure they wanted prices this low), so potentially there is room for a 'critical supply' quantity of RE ex-China for the military and whatnot who are price insensitive (unlike EV makers). Best way to make money in such a demand constrained western supply chain market is to 'set' the prices and meet the demand with just enough supply. Similar to how CBMM manage the global supply and price balance for niobium from their giant Araxa mine in Brazil...
I don;t think one giant supplier dominating the ex-China RE market is desirable or required to provide whatever Re western downstream RE-magnet producers require. A handful of large, low-cost miners spread across the globe would be sufficient to meet demand for uncompetitively high priced RE-Oxides compared to China, which won;t necessarily include EV makers? I see why LYC and MP would like to have monopolistic pricing power by combining. Gina's 5% won't stop it happening or make it happen if the US gov says no on competition grounds.
Either way, if the west is going to subsidise doubling up on China's supply (which is enough to supply the globe with demonstrably) then whatever over-supply situation the world is faced with western governments want to minimise the cost of subsides and price of RE magnets for consumers (economics 101). MT Weld and MP are two of the top very large deposits ex-China obviously, and can ratchet up Re supply many times over current production for a very long time. MEI and VMM are both going to low-cost, high production RE deposits right up there with the best, especially in the ultra-critical DyTb which makes them the real target for LYC imo. Re-shoring the huge amount of existing mineral sands monazite (eg ILU, Tronox), new sand mines like Wimmera in Victoria or others in Madagascar, India, Brazil will be very large, very low cost so long as governments help cracking plants compete with China.
There are some others but you get the point, only room for so many in a global over-supply market when EVs have options besides RE-Perm-mag motors to avoid the entire risk situation. The window is closing as the giants crank up, better new deposits move to the front of queue and obviously there is a hundred Re deposits being worked on that simply won't make it. Being in the right place for subsidised loans and even some price assistance helps, but not if you are at the wrong end of the cost curve...
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