"Any hind sight example wouldn't suit, as there is not...

"Any hind sight example wouldn't suit, as there is not comparison (apples to apples)."... that makes it difficult because other stocks at ARR's particular point on the LC (as I perceive it) need to be in ARR's position both time and place. You may decry any example I provide already passed top of the LC (approx where ARR were pre-CR) as simply hindsight, which may suit your purpose but doesn't invalidate the concept...

The LC is well known and in general understood, though in detail my interpretation may be different to others. Where a project/stock sits on the curve is even more subjective owing to one's view of exploration potential, various upside drivers, current valuation 'discount' to fair LC value etc. Bullish or bearish bias will argue, so be it. Look up various explanations for those not aware of the basics The Lassonde Curve - Mining Explained



The two critical parts of the curve for most HC investors are end of the speculation value-add exploration stage (when do punters that don;t want to ride it down get out) and the end of feasibility stage (when will the price start to rise again). These two turning points represent obvious exit-entry points, though it;s not always obvious when exploration value-add ends, or when the post FS bottom is in? The answer is part subjective judgement, part factual price action, and part luck because at most points along the theoretical curve a new discovery or met breakthrough can shift one's location, as can negative developments or fatal flaws. Overlying all these variables is the market mood and commodity pricing which effectively lifts or lowers the entire LC for the sector and explorers/developers on it (ie top of exploration value-add period may be lower in share price than FS bottom of curve if the commodity price has risen strongly in the mean time).

By way of a good ARR analogy off the top of my head is LIN. Huge deposit, lots of drilling made it obvious well before the MRE was released it was going to be big. Share price topped out on MRE release as speculators rushed for the exit and kept on selling ahead of the FS period. More drilling, infill drilling etc wasn't going to change the deposit situation or add more value... 'huge resource, long life' had already been priced in by then. Same with met work that demonstrated good, cheap processing into a high-quality monazite con... not much more good news to come (maybe even disappointing met news on further work, as actually turned out).

ARR is a different deposit/location, but I hope you understand that even though LIN topped out 9 months ago, the period it was in and orphan period ahead was ordained by Lassonde, not some hindsight invention. More drilling at HCk is unlikley to change what everyone knows by now, that it is a huge deposit and will get bigger. The market knows this and also knows bigger adds no value, because the market knows it will but worries it may be worth nothing if things go wrong (eg future met work).

In very specific terms, if I was to hazard a guess, I'd say LIN's double top of 45c June'23 before 33c Cr is analogous to ARR's 45c top before their 30c CR, and LIN's short bounce into the MRE July'23 is analogous to ARR's small bounce into the SS before sellers came back and kept taking profits (so far as any two companies are 'comparable')...

Cheers