With relation to comments from @fact.u.al in another thread about "drill, drill, drill", I feel it is imperative that Akora only proves up more tonnes that are of an indicated or measured status.
Right now the financials in the scoping study are only for 4.5mt out of a total of 194mt - or only 2.3% of the current defined resource.
With just 4.5mt of attributable resource, there is free cash flows of US$250m, an NPV of US$125 million and an IRR of 64% pre-tax.
I appreciate the equipment and processes in the scoping study are for DSO mining only, but adding at least one zero to the NPV will get the attention of many more investors.
Paul said in his most recent presentations / interviews that each 1Mt of DSO is about $50m of cash (he actually says each 2Mt is $100m in free cash flow, but same same).
Here's the rub (check the infographic below).
The current 4.5Mt of indicated resource has free cash flows of $270m, and an NPV of $125m.
There is another 4Mt - 5Mt of DSO that is still in the inferred status - , so let's say $150m USD just to be conservative, but it is likely closer to $200m USD (or $225m - $300m in AUD terms).
Roughly another 1Mt - 2Mt of DSO ($50m - $100m USD cash) that has already been drilled in the Central and Northern zones that will be able to be included in the PFS.
There is probably another 500k to potentially 2m tonnes of outcropping and at surface DSO material that "can NOT be measured / included" as a part of the JORC resource - so that is another $25m - $100m USD ($37.5m - $150m in AUD terms)
The current DSO resource represents free cash flows of roughly $520m USD, or $780m AUD using lower estimates, but could be as high as $570m USD or $855m AUD
And this is just for the DSO that has been proven up (indicated), identified (inferred) or can been seen at surface (unmeasured outcropping).
In terms of the primary resource, even at a margin of $25 USD per tonne, or $37.50 AUD, the 185Mt has a value of US$4.625 BILLION dollars, or $6.95 BILLION AUD.
These number are just the starting point, as the 62% iron ore price is $130/t, so it could be assumed that there is significantly more than $25USD/t to be made with the current pricing.
The low Opex C1 cash cost is $29 USD/t, so even if that was to double to $60 USD/t when we start producing regular iron ore with crushing and screening (not grinding to 75 microns for green steel), the margins at:
- The long term price of $100 USD/t is $40 USD/t, with potential free cash flows of $7.4B USD / $11.1B AUD
- Todays price of $130 USD/t would be $70/t, with potential free cash flows of $12.95B USD / $19.42B AUD
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Back to my opening comment about only proving up measured or indicated tonnes, I think Paul should do the following things.
Bekisopa
Complete the assays for the central and northern zones - funds raised and money allocated.
Drill another 2000m in the Southern zone - especially for the high grade "Green Steel" region - to create an indicated bulk resource resource of at least 40Mt - this would prove up a 20 year mine life at 2Mt per year (note, the tonnes produced / shipped would likely increase).
The resource in the southern zone is much shallower, so 2000m of drilling should be able to prove up quite a few tonnes.
Once the analysis of the Satrokala EM survey is complete,
1) Drill out as much of the resource as possible to get an inferred resource
2) Based on the drill core samples, find the best region and then do another 50 - 100 x 25m deep drill holes in order to create another DSO resource for Satrokala.
This would mean we have 2 resources within 40kms of each other with the following profiles:
Bekisopa - ~9Mt of indicated DSO, 0.5-2Mt of unmeasured outcropping, and 35Mt of indicated "Green Steel" resource, maybe ~20Mt of indicated "regular" primary resource and still 135mt of inferred "regular" (and potentially Green Steel upgradeable) primary resource.
Satrokala - ~XMt of indicated DSO and XXXMt of primary resource.
This would mean we could go into the DFS (if one is needed), with a significantly more resource that is at least 10X larger than what we have currently.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Things the company can't say - The current DSO resources represent free cash flows of roughly $780m AUD.
With relation to comments from @fact.u.al in another thread...
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