Thinking of getting in at 19c?, page-46

Hi Rambo

I think you've been a holder for a while, would you mind helping me here? I'm expecting we'll get an announcement soonish and trying to get my numbers to line up ready to change them when the time comes! (BTW, I'm a holder because I'm expecting the 'oil tanker' to turn around over the next few years, so don't take this as pessimism, just trying to be 'eyes-wide-open'!).

If we assume that your scenario is right ($120m dispute, $40m margin, and they don't get the margin - which as you say, is not in the books already), and given no news of new contracts what do you think the 2015 Annual Report will look like, in terms of Revenue, Employee/HirePurchase Expenses and NPAT?

The $200m that they mentioned in the half year report as 'in the forward order book' for the second half seems low to me. I'm struggling to allocate the money we know they are getting accross the 2013/4/5 years and not end up with a larger number). Do you think they meant literally that if nothing changes the 2015 full-year revenue will be $770?

Secondly, the employee expenses and ANZ hire purchase expenses surely cannot fall much for the second half - hard to change and not advisable if there is a chance of landing something soon? (and no news of mass layoffs now that Roy Hill is winding down). It's hard to see the full-year figures for these 2 falling below -$600m? (and a solid cash loss for the second half).

Thanks a lot,
pb