thinking outside the square...

A bit busy at the moment...so no time to update my notes...

Can someone please confirm for me net pay to date (gas only)

I have an approximate 170ft of gas (potential production zones) and am conservatively allowing another 50ft of likely production from the numerous +500 units shows (250 unit shows are producing elsewhere in the region).

This gives us a total of 220ft of likely productive pay to date.

Now...I have been re-reading some old reports and it has occurred to me that initially the 3tcf target was for the well...not just for Leadville.

From the prospectus...

"The Golden Eagle Prospect is a large undrilled Pennsylvanian shelf-edge/basement structure with the potential to produce more than 3 TCF (trillion cubic feet of gas) and is expected to be drilled to a total depth of 4,450 metres in the fi rst half of 2006."

I may be wrong here, but it appears the only place that 3tcf has been applied specifically to Leadville is in the ASX announcements.

This could be an error...or it may be that I am wrong and subsequent data has confirmed 3tcf is still current just for for Leadville?

Anyway...I am actually hoping that 3tcf has in fact been applied to the entire well, because a quick tally of existing pay reveals a surprising result.

Pre-drill prognosis suggested a total possible "Gross thicknes" of the target zones of 2,598ft...but a total expected reservoir thickness of just 1,200ft for the 12 target zones.

That's TOTAL EXPECTED RESERVOIR THICKNESS (pre-drill) of 1,215ft...to which a 100% success rate is expected to yield up to 3tcf of gas.

Now it gets interesting.

Without Leadville, taking the already confirmed 220ft of net pay and dividing it into the pre-drill highside figure of 1,215ft and we get 18.1% of the original total pay.

Amazingly...18.1% of 3tcf give us 543bcf!

Yes,...thats 543BCF

Without Leadville!

To be fair...we don't have official confirmation of net pay yet, nor do we have confirmed accumulation size...so plenty of data to flow...but even allowing an 80% discount to the potential of what has already been discovered...20% of the above figure gives us 108.5BCF

Without Leadville!

lol...just need the slightest bit of luck from here now...although from what I have seen of the results so far, I really do feel luck no longer appears to be as much of the equation as it once was.

Cheers!