I am not sure of comparing the CHM now to the IMU price in the past is helpful. I am sorry if I implied that when I mentioned my average prices. What I was hoping to show was the benefit of getting into these companies early and accumulating. Sometimes the early rerates are where the biggest gains are made.
I think rather than looking at the past, a thought towards the future is a better thing. CHM share price at $aud 200 million market cap will be 60.5c. At $aud500 million is $1.51 and at $aud 1 billion $3.02. That small SOI is doing a lot of lifting for us. Wa have been told that CHM will be looking at fast tracking drug approval. So the phase 2 trial hopefully leads to approval (check other CarT drugs that have done this, so not uncommon). Have a look at the yearly earnings of these approved drugs, and have a look at the price paid by big pharma when buying the drugs, thats $21 plus.
Also remember greater than 40% (check this as its off the top of my head and I havent checked announcements to check it) of the SOI is held in escow (another 18 months) or within the top 20 or both. So the tradable portion of the SOI is circa 125 million (check this number as before, but its close). This is why we will see massive see saws in share price on no news. If someone wants to buy they are going to raise the price. If someone wants to sell they are going to lower, all driven by lack of supply.
The FA part of my brain tells me that we should see the sell side continue to dry up as we approach the Sept readout. Looking at trade volume it seems most buyers are holding their shares. This would suggest the price keeps marching hirer. However one or two people needing to sell can reverse this of course.
The company is researching other cancer types that the drug can be used for. It will also be investigating off the self type CarT cell tech. These expansions to the pipeline and IP add value to the market cap.
Australia is a great place for biotech research. The tax rebate of research money is a great insentive for research companies to be based here. With its leading edge tech, industry savvy BOD and experienced and respected researchers CHM has a lot going for it.
Lots of potential here.
CHM Price at posting:
36.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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