BTA 0.00% 57.0¢ biota holdings limited

this biotech model is broken

  1. 832 Posts.
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    The events of the last 2 weeks and reading the posts on this forum have led me to the conclusion that the biotech model used by BTA is broken.

    The fact that significant breakthroughs are used by traders frightens away the serious investors who don't know when to buy in. Thus, the capitalisation wave passes, and little is left. LT Holders/investors feel regret they didn't sell into it, LT buyers/investors feel glad they didn't, and who knows what traders feel.

    The unpredictability of royalties and deals feed the frenzy, but they keep away long term holders/investors. Most small biotechs rely on this wave to let their directors and major holders play the traders. BTA is different in that regard. But a lack of dividend, a lack of marketed product (or business) all contribute to making BTA just the serious kid in the class of jokers. CSL is not that wildly innovative, but it plays differently. It set out to take over the world plasma market. BTA can't or won't take a product to market much less take over the world influenza treatment (as opposed to vaccine)market.

    It's newly stated mission to grow shareholder wealth by asset growth is glib. It still hasn't articulated a plan for the future.

    Here's a plan:

    1. Sell the remaining relenza royalties back to GSK (or anyone else, maybe an Indian/Chinese co? )for a lump sum. There would be no better time than now to do this.
    2. Sell all its others programs except LANI
    3. Take its cash and LANI and either borrow (maybe Ruddbank?The Future Fund?) or go looking for someone to take it over who'll have the capital to market the product. If it does a deal, it should be as a partner, not as a rent boy.
    4. Start paying a dividend. It's not even for the money, but for the discipline it imposes.

    I'm no expert. I'm happy to hear other plans from budding or actual MBAs, maybe they could use BTA as a case study. But continuing with the current model seems nuts to me. The CEO doesn't want traders on the register, but that's all they will ever get on this current path, since the traders are better rewarded than the holders/investors.

    PS Some on this forum imply BTA has been on "someone's" radar, silently manipulating this spike down. That someone must be a moron, or a ghost, since its share price was 30 cents 6 months ago and I see no notices of significant accumulation.
 
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