This coronavirus is out of control, page-569

Looks like the opportunity to stop the spread in Australia has gone. Current measures will only slow the rate imo.

Based on a seed number of 50 transmitting on average to 3 people each every 5 days Australia will have 12,000 infections in a month and 8million in 2 months.

The Spanish flu infected 33% of the worlds population I would assume something similar can happen here easily

On current known stats about 20% of those infected become critical and up to 50% of these may result in fatality.

The only variable we can try to control is the infection rate but at this point it will only slow down the spread. We can hope for a less deadly mutation but that could go the other way too.

Attempting to avoid catching it based on current info gives you a probability of death of around 3% if you get it your probability goes up to about 5%

However if you get it early there may be advantages

1. You may get a less nasty mutation and gain immunity should a more lethal mutation appears down the track. This was noted in the Spanish flu outbreak.

2. You will get better treatment if you go critical as hospitals will be able to cope thus improving your probability of survival.

3. Reduced stress - trying to avoid this thing will be a very stressful exercise. Not many people will be able to isolate themselves and their family for the next 18months - 2 years