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aj----anyone capable of using a financial calculator or a spreadsheet can calculate the potential rate of return using the CPI as one base and for myself a large amount of local knowledge developed over 35years of interest in realty,the difficulty after establishing a set of parameters, and there is a wide set of parameters.

the difficulty is not wether the almost,at times ,future incredible theoretical price is met,the real question is when.

when will the market recognise that demand and cost base have created a new base figure---the average window of opportunity
in establishing a new base is 4months,prices do not move gently with a steady flow of cpi and wage or affordability data,general prices move after the market has been asleep and when it awakens to the realisation that it looks cheap the rush is on-----the current market i believe offers incredible opportunity in some sectors the realisation of that is some time in the future---when exactly i am not sure.

now the last bit might be of more interest i plot the likelihood of returns against my personal financial position
and have never,i repeat never undertaken a property purchase with less than 30% of the capital at my disposal.

so i guess the 10% purchasers are dreamers or speculators but history tells me i will get all my money back including repayments--the days of realising a 5 bagger might still be true but excepting an extraordinary location for the general market it might be 25-40 years away.

you see aj with real estate i always plot finanacial outcomes and as incredible as they seem at times ,the reality is they have always come about within 2-4years of my estimate.

so why dont you tell us how you plot probabilities,or anyone else for that matter