"Goldman Sachs estimates suggest that all of these previous numbers are pure fantasy. It expects Jio to gather just 35 million subscribers over the next two years, with data volume growth for incumbents slowing to 50 percent in the 2017 fiscal year from 70 percent in 2016."
Fast forward one year....
"MUMBAI: The customer base of Reliance Jio has touched 160 million, a little over a year after the newcomer stormed into the telecom market with aggressive voice and data offerings."
Bevan Slattery predicting the style of launch for TPG's mobile strategy...
"Speaking during the CommsDay Summit in Sydney on Tuesday, Slattery said TPG is likely to launch a "Jio-style" product wherein it will offer a mobile router with unlimited downloads at a low cost."
Considering TPG will follow a similar disruptive launch, albeit probably less dramatic than Jio, this doesn't lend a lot of credibility to Goldman Sach's ability to forecast the success of a new low cost entrant to a telco market. They are similarly very negative of TPM's ability to capture enough market share to make an acceptable return, hence the big downgrade. As you can see from their research on Jio they were completely wrong.
Having said that, I think the latest predictions from Bevan Slattery are very over the top given TPM hasn't launched yet, and we haven't seen initial numbers.
