Curtosy of Saharatraveller (Worldstocks)Fill to Spill Analysis...

Curtosy of Saharatraveller (Worldstocks)

Fill to Spill Analysis (Puntland)
Sun Apr 08, 2012 11:33 am

Although I have been reading these boards for months but this is the
first time I post here.

I have spent the last weekend in our part of the world here looking at
some information that I have at hand (well analysis and plans) in
additional to some technical knowledge of having to look at wells on a
daily basis for so many companies, their drilling plans, casings,
etc….
On Feb 23rd, they reached 1,230 meters and cased which means they have
gone through the first formation Jesomma (Shale / Sandstone /
Siltstone).
On March 7th they report that they have reached 2002 meters which
means they were just at the top of the Qishn primary target. The
interesting in that release is that they have said nothing encountered
above 1600M which is just above the Gumburu formation containing
(Shale / Siltstone/ Sandstone/Limestone). Then they say they have
encountered HC for 400M up to 2002 which is inline of where most
producing wells in Yemen Are. 80% of wells in Yemen range between
5,000 to 7,500 feet. Before they case and go into the Qishn, they must
do a wire-log to make sure they adjust based on shows (such as gas)
and any potential influx. At the same time rumors started flying that
it is commercial and I believe they have commercial oil in that part
and I will explain why.
On March 19th, they have reported a depth of 2,384 which mean they are
in the primary well. The plan is to do wire-line logging after TD of
3,800 m. However, nothing can prevent them from doing an intermediate
wire-log if they have encountered HC in the Qishn formation before
they proceed. I know I might get smacked by most of you on this. They
said they have nothing to report which means they are telling us the
primary reservoir has nothing!!! No (they already did before), Where
did it go? Guess what it has already migrated to the top 400M before
this formation as the closure is at 1600M instead of their anticipated
2100m. This means that the Qishn is a fill to spill up to the first
limestone at 1600. Remember that their data is based on 1950s and
1980s 2d seismic.

If we take the drilling rates between the above it is about 27M per
day which puts us today at 2900m give or take. The second target is at
3400m. I believe that on March 19th they have surpassed the Qishn
formation before its anticipated end at 2500 because they have put a
wire-line now and they know. If we get a report this week saying they
have encountered HC again during Amla’ah/Marib/Hammnlei formation this
means this wells if loaded up to 4,000m and would confirm offshore as
well.

Limestone starts again at 2500 which can be fractured to spill. At
3600 is the start of the basement which can be fractured.

When someone said they have found billions. This would have been
interpreted by people and engineers that since the Qishn formation has
already spilled up to the closure at 1600M, what can prevent this
happening from the basement up to the closure!!! Fill to Spill.
Hope the above helped.

Then followed up with this:
Re: Fill to Spill Analysis (Puntland)
Sun Apr 08, 2012 4:04 pm

Thanks for all your comments. I am not here to ramp or de-ramp. I am not sitting on a rig or in Africa. I cannot disclose what I do but I have reviewed lots of wells and development programs in the profession I work in. Some have hit, some u can saying they don't know what they are doing.

Lets go back again to march 7 announcement. They explicitly said WORKING (emphasis here) hc system. They could have just said hc shows which can mean motor oil on sand. Why would they say working? This technically would mean that enough fracturing and pressure has allowed hc to accumulate. They r lucky that the seal at 1600m was intact. Hence no migration to surfacewhich mean commercial oil. Otherwise how can it move.

There r two scenarios here:
1) the 400 m has extended into the qishn formation (which was reported being at that depth on the 19th) and hence nothing new to report as they mentioned. Further drilling can confirm a longer column. This has happened before like with gkp so it is not out of the ordinary.

2) nothing to report can mean the qishn formation is empty and hence all the oil is in that 400m. I speculate that there is nothing more down there unless there is another non fractured formation at the 3400 level. As I said most wells in Yemen are between 5000 and 7500 feet. The same is the new well discovered in Kenya.

Hence mike if Kenya and shabeel have the same pay geology, I don't think a 10km would be significant. I would be more worried about jka where they have surface seeps as they might have a harder time finding the intact reservoir.

I was invested in a company called vast exploration. Shallow seeps, komentan shows, etc... 900 m column. But guess what not commercial in the bottom where the 900 was. No cap above that. It seems that the fractured cap is deeper and now they need to drill another well with NIKO. Drill site was wrong.

I think and just speculating, 400m is a full pay. A first test should pump over 25000 barrel if good pressure. Those saying billions they probably run the scenario I explained earlier.

40% probably of success is there now for a reason. Working hc system not just hc shows.

U re free to copy and paste