M79 - Despite the confidence shown by various Brokers ( based on...

M79 - Despite the confidence shown by various Brokers ( based on statistical analysis) and overseas fund managers (M& G Invest's), really no one can predict what the Phase III outcome will look like....so there is always RISK that an application may not be commercialized by FDA .,,

What gives me alot of confidence with MSB is:

(1)The fact that the company has 12 applications ( all $bn plus) and to date all pre-clinical & Phase II have been strong with statistically significant results.
IMO, if MSB is just able to commercialize 2-3 of these applications (but like Vinn I think it will succeed on may more) you have a company knocking on CSL's door.

(2) The "feet on the ground" approach my management, its continued attention to detail and tenacity in achieving company milestones.

(3) Its forthright/tranperant style of allowing medical experts to talk about trial outcomes - not just company personnel.

(4) BUT to me - the biggest vote of condidence in MSB, its MPC technology and ultimately the question of whether MSB will become a commercial business ....was when CEPH partnered with MSB and this partnering was then ratified by TEVA.

We are talking about some very knowledgeable, qualified, crakerjack speciality Pharma experts looking at MSB's history , its technology, its patents, and then deciding to committ significant cash resources towards its various applications.

I still dont believe that fund mangers ( M & G excepted) have fully understood the investment made by CEPH.
At the time when CEPH paid $4.35 for MSB they were a $4.5bn company. Then TEVA took them out at over $6bn.
In my resaerch, MSB's pipeline was one of the reasons ( amongst many others ) why CEPH was attracticve to TEVA.

TEVA is due to take over CEPH's 19.9% in early October and they have already indicated there support and excitement in the BMT application and Cadiovascular franchise.

Whilst analyst confidence is always welcomed , IMO I look at the investment made by CEPH as validating my investment (and a good nights sleep..particularly in current funny market).

The above are my views only. Please DYOR before making any decisions