KGYou must have watched different interviews than I did.US house...

KG

You must have watched different interviews than I did.

US house prices probably need to fall another 50% or more IMO.

The historical level in constant dollars has never seen a peak like recently. The market is still way above the median level to start with and as with any market overshooting on the up side usually implies overshooting on the downside, so the idea that housing will fall some more and stop near the normal long term trend is probably wishful thinking.

Longer term studies in Europe show that housing investment is probably the worst investment of all.

In fact they do not keep up with inflation and even nominal appreciation is tiny.

A house itself is a depreciating asset as it probably has a 100 year life.

Land prices are of more importance, and the US has almost unlimited area for housing development, which is why their houses are far cheaper than ours.

If as in much of Europe population actually declines or even just stagnates then prices must decline.

In Australia we are still so stupid we continue to boost our population and probably will untill riots stop it.

Finally the mentality of bigger population means a bigger economy and more wealth will be seen in the historical context that for nearly 200 years our standarrd of living compared to the rest of the world has been dropping.

I believe over 100 years ago we were second highest, now where?