Hi KKW It is probably worth going over the price WPL paid for...

Hi KKW

It is probably worth going over the price WPL paid for their 35%. People endlessly refer to $2.20 however this does not stand up to careful analysis.
WPL did boast they had bought for US2.20 (AUS$2.94) at the announcement on 23/8/16 because the 2C had recently been boosted to 560mmb.
However on careful reading you will see that the sale price was set on 1/1/2016 with 2C at 330mmb and
the oil price hovering around $30. So when they set the price they were paying US$3.80 or AUS$5.09.

This I believe is setting current floor price of around 8.9C for 5.4 billion shares.

I am expecting the resource could double this year and as evidence of the quality of the resource and the relatively inexpensive and quick road to first oil becomes clear I expect the value of a barrel to be quickly rerated even at $30barrel oil prices.

Now I am not as bullish as most about short term oil prices and I see plenty of risk in this story but hell for a long term holder who can handle a bit of risk this is a great story.

Just finally OOO I really love your writing and mostly agree however must say I have never known an explorer who wanted to stay an explorer. In my experience they all dream of being miners one day. That said I don't know any Oil explorers personally.

Whisky - the voice of reason

Ya What do we need to do to get you to make a guess at recovery rate and 2c come August.

Cheers all

The longer this volcano takes to go off the bigger the explosion.

Hope to still be here for first oil end of 2021.

This is not advice just justification for my optimism.

MMM