Okay!! Where do I start..
The main reason I write this as a lurker type in this forum is when "with glee" picked up another 35k of RFX at 0.18... it is with a deal of hesitation or maybe a smidge of trepidation I spend this time over the keyboard.. but lets digress!
In no way is this financial advice but the views of a stock holder and should not be treated as financial advice .. This is not a pump and dump exercise.. OKay. BS out of the way.
I've held this stock for a long time, and everybody tells you that you should not get "emotional" with the stocks you hold and if it treats you bad.. "Thank you NEXT"
To keep it very short. I have 4 running portfolios, The blue stocks with ETF's (just for stability and the divi's), a day trading account with a custodial broker (cheap and you don't get the mountains of paper sent to you as with Chess.. Yah save the trees), a well researched long term keepers (penny stocks which have low MC but not selling for 10 years, a win some loose some but hey!!) and finally the high conviction portfolio which has a mix of LT and ST and if a stock treats you bad and you feel it's done -- Goodbye or take profits if the needs be.
Yep.. Did a count. 136 companies and ETF's ... bugger.. Enough to start my own ETF.. Haha!
As said before I've held RFX for a long time (it is in my high conviction portfolio) bought low, sold high played around with it pre consolidation around the 0.019 to the 0.025 (the thing bounced a lot) for as long as I can remember, most times winning. "and then the penny dropped". Whoa what's happening here where it raced from this to 0.05 to almost 0.1 in a very short time.. looking at a portfolio going up in increments of thousands in hours is quite a high!!. Now this stock overtook from being a minor play to now one of my major holdings. Yep, It beat the sell high, buy lows and pure accumulation of the others that you may know. CXO, LTR, WBT, IMU, CRR, Just to name a few, BTW did my a*se on ZIP just to make you feel better.
So in short. great profits with the buys and sells, participated in CR's. p*ssed off chances of exercising free oppies.. Blah Blah Blah.
Had a look at my full spread through sharesight on this one, and am I worried? "nope" I actually have to reach 0.09 post consolidation before I start to lose, even with CGT and other considerations (lovely how you can wash the dogs out, that you thought were a good buy because it was on FB "nil tax to be paid")
WHOA!! got a bit deep, but just to prove, not talking out of thy ar#e.
RFX. A little history. it is a flow type battery.. not a new idea and has been used as a battery backup for years in the mining industry, it comes in various forms but mostly Zinc Bromide (RFX) or Vanadium types and with both, is basically an electroplating - de-electroplating exercise with power in - power out.. simples.
Now the purists may correct me, but, hey I'm the investor in an idea not the chemical engineer.
This is why I invest in RFX.. How's about we take this concept as an alternative to lead acid (yup before lithium hype) and reduce the size so it can be used for the domestic market. Fantastic Idea. Right!! (I'm probably talking to the converted so no biggie and enough of that)
So you have been wondering why I've titled this thread as "this is getting interesting"
I've have noticed an almost blatant attempt to drive the SP lower, 1,000,000 single sell orders acting as a block during the 4pm to 4:10 scramble as a block for any increase and disappear like they were never there and some other buys and sells that suggest things are under foot with a concerted purpose to manipulate the SP, from more of a sophisticated trader actions than retail trying to make a buck. You might say a 1mil sell order is nothing (only $200k) but in this company with this MC it is a big deal.
Hence this theory, it is mine alone.
The recent placement from Scale fell through.. "Oh Dear" and Tim and Co considered the $125k dep as forfeited and straight to the "money on the fridge".
This was a deal to buy $2.5 mil of shares at a 30% premium ($0.26) to be held in escrow "or something along those lines" as extra shares issued.
My theory and some made up figures but you'll get the drift - Scale could have bought say 2mil of stock on market @0.20 = 400k... Used this to sell to the existing buyers to drive the price down to 0.17 till all exhausted.. no biggie now they have $340k cash- loss <60k... Now command a deal with a RFX for a deal with a 30% premium on 0.17 (Same conditions) = 0.221.. Yup a further 15% discount on the current offer. An opportunity to buy more stocks at the same offered $2.5mil (113mil shares ver +96mil shares) 289k win and all it cost was <60k. BTW there would be a binding agreement that the money on the fridge is reinstated as a deposit. "JEEBUS that's what I would do!!!"
Anyway enough of the conspiracy theories.
Now Tim Harris.. "oh dear Timothy" . What can I say.. Business in these small listed stocks really depends on not just, what you know but WHO you know. Tim comes from a telecommunications background and has flogged to death to all he knows to sell to this industry and others closely aligned. Actually did a good job for sales to a small sector but this has slowed as the market for this is being saturated.
Now I will say.. unfortunately Tim and others on the board have got the marketing skills of an "ant" as I reviewed the proud public photos taken of the Anaergia project in the US, needing to require a 400% zoom and a microscope to find the "Redflow" logo.. This is just one of many but with a marketing mind I would have paid a sign writer 10k to plaster the side of the installation with "Installed by Redflow - The renewable, renewable battery" as an example and would get the name out there an alternative to domestic and industrial batteries other than lithium rather than someone thinking that Redflow is the name of a product that you would find in the female sanitary isle at woolies.
It would be amiss of me to not offer some suggestions but I'm sure there are a lot of holders out there that have their own ideas of how to capture more of the market. Must keep in mind that we are dealing with the ZBM3 which is a 10kw battery with a lot going for it (read the promo material) but does have an achilles heel, being it has a limited power output over a given time (max 2kw/hr) correct me if wrong.. again just an investor not a electrical engineer.
Scenario 1 - Farmer Bob lives out west of Young. Modest 500 acres. Had to have all power poles replaced after a fire came through and damaged them beyond repair. It took 3months for the electricity company to get their act into gear for this repair, meanwhile the family has been living on a diesel generator and the 15kw solar array that he had put in 5 years ago as a forward looking concept by himself and the government and pre-loss of the power poles, sold most of what he produced back to the grid. He's had enough! His power requirements are to have the lights and power on in the shearing shed, lights on in the house, a bit of domestic use ie computers, TV, internet, toaster etc and during the day a pump to run the water from the dam to a head pressure tank so the troughs for the sheep are full. Has bottled gas for the cooking and hot water. heating is the slow combustion in the lounge room.
Installs 2x Redflows delivering 20KW at 4kw peak.., Does all he wants. and the units can burp and fart all they like in their 1/4 size fireproof container down next to the solar array with the generator for emergencies. He's happy, no more power problems and has insulated and hardened his power access, even finds out that this qualifies as a asset to business that has a huge write down, so his accountant reckons!
Probable unit sales with like situations +5000.
Scenario 2 - Farmer Joe lives west of Bendigo. has 1000 acres and ready to retire and do that grey nomad thing. Dream is to subdivide the land to 4 x 250acre lots. Give 2 to his 2 kids and sell the other 2 for the retirement fund. He investigates to have power put at each site and the quote comes back at $400k (yup can cost 30K per power pole) instead buys 4x 4 unit ZBM3 modules and installs 20KW solar at each site. Costing - say 4 unit modules $80k each, 20KW $20k installed $400k in total. No power poles. No risk of fire and flood outages. and gets a premium price for the other 2 blocks because of their self-sustaining and off grid features.
Probable unit sales--- Who knows??
Scenario 3 - Ingenia holidays secures some land for a holiday destination mid north coast. The local power available will not handle the proposed construction and habitation of the 60 units proposed. The upgrade to the power supply coming from the nearest sub station 5 km away will be 1.5mil.
Does this instead, Buys 6 x 10unit ZBM3 modules. All the units have a well installed 6KW solar array on top (actually keeps the roof cool and shields from direct sunlight) and more solar on the other outbuildings like live-in reception and BBQ areas. Basically these units are all paralleled to each other as is the solar to each of the modules. The current grid power is now sufficient for the project and during the summer months as most are retiree's who go and visit family there is an over supply which is feed back to grid for profit.. Install costs 1.56mil and advertises as the forefront of renewable living.
You could apply this to housing developers with community power banks etc, etc . the list is endless
Anyway have bored you all enough. Need to hit the farter.
But please, as I know a few here do actually know Tim personally.. a flea in his ear.
Or as a good CEO of a small cap who should be aware of holders sentiments. looking at HC, TMH isn't a bad idea to get some inspiration.
Tim start looking around here also for these markets maybe buddy up with the likes of Elders, rural holdings etc or get someone to market in Oz. You know. that place with too much sunshine that skin cancer is a big killer.
Am I talking pipe dreams.. Nope not really. most of the above will become a reality. Just hope Redflow is in the mix before it misses out.
We may need a bigger factory.
Cheers all
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