Hello LesPaul, Understand where you are coming from it seems to me the intelligent discussion on this forum is correct within reason from each perspective - negative and defensive.
Prolonged periods of flat to slightly negative housing prices need not affect many existing property holders. This looks like such a time to me over an extended period. Also saw a comment about widespread collapse and do not believe this will happen. it will happen in some areas, holiday and retirement areas a classic and see it here in Merimbula and Tathra NSW near where I live.
My recent postings were to highlight the growing potential for "limited distress selling" by banks so I outlined how banks and related contracts work to create this opportunity. Banks are not in a great position and a disaster could unfold but is likely to be contained to limit the damage in terms of scope (breadth through market) and scale.
Balance is needed here guys - not trying to tell anybody how to suck eggs. Those holding property long term earn rent and if not forced to sell when things are in the brief 1 - 2 year crisis point that is "possible" here then they will be just fine. In the right areas just fine also - even some upside may be possible - I say possible.
Upside in the general market is less likely unless you subscribe the hyperinflation scenario, due to the economic era of lower growth and higher cost of capital. I see merit in both sides of these arguments however and enjoyed reading the discussion - great thinking and debate in many cases. This is just my 2c worth and have inside knowledge of global distress funds and banking thanks to some high level contacts.
I am lining up for the rarities which may be presented in the coming year or two if the global and local events line up and create the opportunity for a really depressed market where forced selling can occur - if you are in the right place at the right time.
I am not selling my home I am diversified and like it this way. If I were a builder or developer this is different - I would lighten up my stock and batten down the hatches for an extended period as this goes in cycles. I would eliminate debt and change the business model to cater for government or specialist market opportunities.
