this is just silly, page-43

Hi Oscar,

The reference document I was referring to was the Barnett shale specific to Tarrant county and not anything CEL produced - this doc used $6/$9/$12Mcf.

Using $6Mcf is pretty popular number as a constant for 10 years.

I would draw your attention to the comment on slide 23 of CEL's investor presentation
"...the economics are conceptual and unrisked and are calculated and based on a set of assumptions derived by comparison with existing Barnett and Woodford production"

The Tarrant county document is exactly that. They didn't provide $4.5Mcf numbers (I know that HenryHub is just on $4Mcf but they is a low number to use). I think it is a reasonable independent comparison



Re the Ellenburger - info seems hard to come by for it.

I found this on the "Four Majors" in Edwards county referencing production from nearby Four Mills which had only 1.2Bcf per well (160 acres) at 1,188Mcf/day.
http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/meetings/ogpfd/ogpor41/01-63495-r41.pdf

Another reference is
http://www.riograndepetroleum.com/documents/News/Blugrass-Energy-March-11-2011-ES-Final.pdf

This is in nearby county so could be completely irrelevant.

Excerpt:
If Rio Grande hits the right spot, it is not unrealistic to expect this well to produce at rates exceeding 10 Mmcf/d and to recover 50+ Bcf of natural gas over a lifetime of 21+ years. Typical Ellenburger wells are drilled on a 640-acre spacing; therefore, there exists the potential to drill seven wells on the Company?s property. Based on the latest resource assessment report conducted by dB, LLC, Petroleum Advisory Services out of Dallas and released on March 1, 2011, the oil engineering company estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from the Ellenburger formation to
be 140 Bcf of natural gas on the Childress lease. In its calculation, dB,LLC validated six wells and estimated that four wells are average producers at EURs of 10 Bcf per well. Two exceptional wells will produce 50 Bcf each. It takes approximately sixty days to drill an Ellenburger
well and drilling costs are approximately $3,850,000/well.


Still haven't made the plunge into CEL (but warming up)