If you look at recent history in the crude and IO business and even coal, the higher cost producers are still hanging on dear life and swamping the market with surplus supply. I don't know how long it will last but the supply keeps coming into the markets.
Look at the Oz gold sector, you have the good, bad and outright ugly BUT they are still hanging on so far. The supply side can keep come up with the goods for however long it takes to cull the industry of wannabes. This is probably healthy for the industry in GP terms.
The randomness of the market especially in times of volatility causing by a structural shift in sentiment can have random effects. I have stopped trying to think logically and look directly at charts to based my inform view among other things inter-market correlations.
One quick and dirty way is to see where price will test - the high or the low of yesterday's candle. If it test the low I am going to guess that there are more bear sell stops eager to join the new found paper gold rush for a bigger fall. If price test the high of yesterday's candle I will also suspect swing high bears will also be looking to find short opportunities. The only way is for the bulls to find the strength to just charge back up through the support break.
Current price action is not suggesting that. The longer this takes the less the bulls will have the confidence.
I reckon for intraday long trades, there are far better FX or Silver attempts.
