re: generic tamiflu Relenza was designed to properly fit into a...

re: generic tamiflu Relenza was designed to properly fit into a conserved region of the target site where it does not overlap with any part that varies or mutates. Tamiflu was a Relenza rip-off. Gilead just pinched the structure and added a small group to make it water soluble so that it could be made into a pill to be taken orally instead of by inhaling it. This makes it bind more weakly to the same site on the flu virus so you need a lot more Tamiflu to be effective and you run the risk of inducing mutations. Relenza is unlikely to induce mutations in any strain.

Spanish flu started in 1917 and lasted nearly a year. It killed perhaps 50 million people in that time, was a straight bird flu that is almost identical with the current worrying strain of bird flu and spread from human to human, infecting almost everyone in the world at the time and killing 2% of those infected, sometimes in a few hours.

If the current strain mutates very slightly in some bird that is then able to spread easily between people then it will be off again before a vaccine can be developed. It could spread worldwide within a month and last another few weeks which is why essential services personnel will be allocated 10 courses of the antivirals each to protect them from contracting flu in the first place. Anyone imagine the fight to get supplies in that event from essential services personnel families even?

The current stain kills over 50% of people, not 2% so is vastly more dangerous potentially. However, the chance of keeping such a high kill rate when spreading between people is unlikely because other changes to the virus are likely to make it less virulent according to the experts. The WHO still anticipates up to 150 million deaths in a few months but all this is a guess. It might not happen, it might be less severe and it might be even worse than those predictions suggest. All we can do is be as prepared as possible. Relenza is the best first line defence but will not be available for more than 5-10% of the population in any pandemic so most of us will have to keep a very low profile. The economy will take one almighty hit that makes 1987 look like a picnic. Cash will be king and internet transactions will be very popular. I just hope it doesn't happen.