SWM 9.09% 18.0¢ seven west media limited

This Is The Problem, page-3

  1. 401 Posts.
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    Impairments aren’t cash impacts; they are accounting treatment to update the value of assets on the balance sheet and reflect their current worth.
    swm doesn’t have a cashflow problem. It is still cash generative and making decent margins by the standards of most industries. $175m EBIT on about $1b revenue. Low capex requirements by most standards.
    its problem is growth, or more particularly declining revenue and profits. However, there is a price for everything. If the magazine sale (40m) goes through and they have generated perhaps $10m free cash since year end, then net debt will be around $490m. Enterprise vale therefore around $800m.
    bvod at $ 25m ebitda run rate is worth at least $200m if stand-alone. Are the studios, ch7, wan, community newspapers etc worth only $600m. IMHO opinion they would fetch At least $800m so the equity should be worth Min $510m or 34c p.s.
    stokes should bid 35c, take it private and reshape the assets. He would be earning 170m or so EBIT on a $1b investment, therefore earning significant FCF after interest costs of financing it, buying time to realise value in the assets.
 
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