You've got a pretty good handle on things there. In terms of the risks, Port/Rail congestion is not an issue, I believe, because we're talking relatively small amounts - 10,000 tonnes of ore is peanuts compared to iron or coal.
There are 2 key risks that I see, you've got one of them (costs of inputs, both chemical and energy), and you've got the other one, sorta.
The industry is highly concentrated, dominated by the Chinese. Increased production at the Chinese mines could, potentially, flood the market thereby reducing mines. There is (at least) one poster on this forum for whom this is a virtual certainty in the next year or two - I forget whom, I have him on Ignore now.
While this is a risk, I don't believe it's likely. Similarly, the discovery of another source is also unlikely. REE often occur together with radio-active elements (Thorium specifically), most deposits are difficult to mine. Mt Weld is very "clean" in that sense.
I'm very bullish on LYC - I missed selling at $1.60 in June by 3 cents, but I'm sure I'll get another crack at it!!
LYC Price at posting:
36.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)