Every trader is a speculator, and I think this is a very credible viewpoint, but fundamentally, I have to disagree.
Here's why I insist renewables will succeed:
- China's pollution levels will not recede unless they adopt different energy technologies en masse. Their population is still growing, and it's not in their political interests to have countless swathes continually suffering respiratory ailments in perpetuity. It's not only an unrelenting burden on their medical system, but a huge economic burden, a huge productivity burden, and also a quality of life problem... the Chinese are not in the business of wearing such problems lightly.
- All energy policies on all progressive continents are pointing toward this renewable energy paradigm shift. The fastest continent/country to evolve their energy sector will be the fastest to reap prime economic advantage in the next era of technology. Obviously, China wants to adopt this critical mass energy switch before Europe, the US... first movers = fastest to capitalise advantage.
- Using PLS as an example. They have contracted offtake agreements but they're literally years from production. If the lithium market was so dark, shady, and unquantifiable, then how is it that sellers can demonstrate an upper hand over buyers from a timeline so far out?
- We are a sunburnt country. It makes absolutely no sense to rely on centralised energy when prices will never, ever get cheaper. Yet in contrast renewable technology does nothing but get cheaper and cheaper, each and every day. And not only can we generate power, we can now viably store it thanks to devices such as Tesla's Powerwall... only a matter of time until there's 20 variants of this idea from 20 different manufacturers. It's inevitable that some point very, very soon that renewable power will be cheaper than keep up mains power.
- Cars define culture, wealth, status, etc. If you want the fastest car, you have to buy an EV. EV technology, in absolute infancy, has already trumped 100 years of internal combustion engine development. We're not even at V2.0 yet. It's guaranteed this cutting-edge tech will trickle down to become standard technology in every car, as it it currently doing, and as it has done for the last 100 years. Don't get stuck on Tesla and Tesla alone when it comes to the EV space. Warren Buffett for example has hedged his EV bets with a company called BYD... have you ever even heard of them? Only one of the biggest EV makers in China.
Key. There is a race going on in renewable technology adoption, and fossil fuel is on the very precipice of becoming a third world technology. This paradigm shift is occurring right now. And lithium plays a HUGE part in this evolution.
Unfortunately Australia is not at the pointy end of energy awareness, nor at the point end of energy adoption, nor at the pointy end of energy politics, nor at the pointy end of energy policy, so we're not seeing it for what it is. But it is there.
