The issues with JPR’s share price seem pretty straightforward, I...

The issues with JPR’s share price seem pretty straightforward, I think. It seemed fairly obvious that J55 was a strike some time before it was announced; the new investor pres, the broker rec from GMP, and the comments in JPR’s ‘final results’ communication, all strongly hinted at a positive outcome at J55 – hence the rise leading into the drill result announcement. What we’ve seen since is pretty low volume but largely of sells, as some who don’t wish to wait for J58 and the 2013 CPR take a quick (though increasingly small) profit, which is fair enough if that’s your approach. I guess some might be thinking of buying back in before the J58 result and repeating the same trick.

I suspect that reaction to another strike at J58, which I feel is likely, might take the sp up another leg and see JPR around the 65-70c mark. For me, however, the really big drivers will be the CPR and confirmation of what will happen by way of drilling and production after that, and how this will be funded (ie how much from production & from where additional funds will be sourced if required). If we get a CPR in early 2013 giving, say, 45mmbo 2Ps or better, which seems pretty plausible, and if there’s funding available without too much (or any) dilution, then you’d have to think this will catch the eye of investors and perhaps take the sp up to around the 80-90c mark. That still looks very cheap for, say, 45mmbo of 2Ps, with production of hopefully close to 2k bopd and funding in place. JPR really needs to get the future funding issue resolved to take the Company through to the point of being self-funding, in order to reduce the tendency to slip backwards after each new success. If they do this, we'll hopefully see a sustained upward trend with the sp.