this panic will set the boys from the men, page-3

A share price on Monday is almost impossible to pick, so I wont try , but will give my view on why I will be holding my position of long the stock and if it falls dramatically ie more than 15%+ the market % fall (around $1.10 which i dont expect) why I will increase my exposure.

Firstly I did note in the period between 4.06pm when the announcement was made and the 4.15pm close the match out price was looking like 1.29 , actually higher than the 4.00pm close.

I would expect this is because most of the larger players would have been aware there would be a squeeze on some of their maturing fixed int rate book , and in reading it personally it seems there book is actually at a very good current rate and arguably better than most people expected . In my opinion the match out price held up because of this and buyers came in to take the sellers stock that did try and have a match position thinking it would actually match,

Because of the 4.06pm plus 10 minutes pre open rule this didnt eventuate .

The other factor that i think is positive that took place since that match period and I see as a positive for the company was the actual US jobs numbers.

These numbers will put a lot of pressure on the fed to drop interest rates in the short term , and banks will have greater margins and more cash in the pot to use for borrowing if they held there current book at its current rate.

In my opinion and very few people i have read the centro assets are not Sub prime , however due to the defaults in this area where the sub prime lending was mixed with short term lending it got caught up in the same pot of money exposed by the smaller banks , and , as a result such banks were not in a position to rollover their facility for this type of lending because of having less funds to spread over its book because of the defaults.

The fact that interest rates were no longer falling also put pressure on these banks to maintain their margins and LVR s , a factor that would be improved with a fed cut to interest rates .