Take a look at KOLON TISSUE GENE (KT) in Korea (Ticker: 950160 KS, incorporated in US but trades in Korea on the Kosdaq exchange) and judge for yourself. Weblink here.
The market valuation of this peer company are staggering and make the undervaluation of PAR (even on a probability and risk adjusted base) look RIDICULOUS.The analyst covering KT (Wi Haejoo, Ph.D. from Korea Investment Securities) has a price target of KRW100k as his base case which would bring the market cap of KT from current AU$3.8bn to AU$9.2bn (!!) see his reports at the KT website here. He has done a proper scenario analysis in his Mar-25 initiation report (needs google translate from Korean or send email to KT IR asking for English version)
- Kolon TissueGene’s current market cap. In AU$ is 3.8bn. That is 34x the market cap of PAR(!!).
- It trades on average AU$25m per day vs. PAR at only AU$183k (!!).
- It looks legit and also presented at OARSI 2025. Prof Dr David Hunter from Uni of Sydney did the presentation. He presented a study included data from 33 subjects who participated in the U.S. Phase 2 trial.
- Paradigm and Kolon are both targeting regulatory submissions in the U.S. around thesame timeframe (~2028), however, PAR's iPPS represents a lower-risk, more scalabletherapeutic candidate, with a simpler regulatory path, repeatable dosing, and a favourablesafety profile. The one-year iPPS follow-up period for its pivotal Phase 3 trial alsoaccelerates the timeline to potential approval compared to TG-C’s two-year endpoint.
- KT is using cell and gene therapy for osteoarthritis (so called TG-C). Allogeneic stem cell therapies involve the administration of cells derived from a donorrather than the patient. These therapies are gaining traction in regenerative medicine but also face more safety challenges and are regulated as biologics under Section 351 (US) requiring comprehensive safety studies (vs IPPS is currently being developed under the FDA’s traditional New Drug Application (NDA)pathway, not as a biologic.)
- KT is also going for DMOAD (disease-modifying OA drug) status but PAR has had better structural change results.
- More comparison details below
The analysts covering PAR have a price target of AU$0.8 (AU$311m market cap. from Bell Potter) and AU$2.07 (or AU$806m market cap. from Lodge Partners). That means Bell Potter’s price target for PAR is still 12x lower and Lodge Partners is 5x lower than where Kolon TissueGene is currently trading. Not even talking about 30x (for BP) and 11x (for LP) away from the Kolon TissueGene price target (!!).
None of the PAR analysts seems to have done a proper scenario analysis based on TAM and initial (and eventual) market share or probability adjusted valuation.
None of those analysts even mention Kolon TissueGene as a peer and the huge valuation gap despite being at similar stage in approval process.
YES is its possible that KT is overvalued and the market is more euphoric in Korea.
YES if both fail their phase 3 trials they are prob both worth 0.
BUT there is no way the difference between the 2 companies is 34x (!!) the market cap of PAR. Both are at similar stages in their trials and target FDA approval by 2028. KT is a little bit ahead as they have already started and interim results are expected in Apr26 vs PAR in Jun/Jul26. But Phase 2 results seem more promising for PAR and overall (as mentioned above) PAR's iPPS looks like a lower-risk, more scalabletherapeutic candidate, with a simpler regulatory path, repeatable dosing, and a favourablesafety profile.
PAR’s problem is not Paul Rennie (or its mgmt. in general)or its interim funding need (which is AU$15-20m until the Feb-26 expiry of the loyalty options)? The company is proceeding according to FDA timing and guidelines and there is no way around it, delays or extension can and have happened but they are on track and in phase 3.
MAYBE the problem is that the Australian stock market and investors have not been able to properly understand, compare and value the potential of PAR and street Analyst coverage has been too sporadic and nobody seems to have done a proper valuation (probability adjusted), properly defined TAM nor done any peer comparison?
WELL MAYBE Kolon TissueGene IS THE PEER WE NEEDEDto help understand, compare and rerate PAR to a level where it more appropriately reflects its potential, get some more well deserved street coverage and hopefully also some more institutional investor support.
BUT WE NEED PROPER STREET ANALYST COVERAGE FOR PAR. And looking at Kolon's AU$25m average daily trading volume and AU$3.8bn market cap I think it would be well worthwhile for even the bulge bracket brokers.
A BIT MORE DETAILS BELOW:
Paradigm and Kolon TissueGene Phase 2 Result comparison
Both iPPS and TG-C demonstrated sustained pain relief in their respective Phase 2 trials,though key distinctions exist in the methodology, responder data, and timeline:
- iPPS achieved statistically significant and clinically meaningful reductions inWOMAC pain scores, sustained through 12 months post-treatment. Over 55% ofpatients achieved ≥30% pain reduction, with high durability of effect.
- TG-C demonstrated meaningful reductions in VAS and IKDC pain scoressustained to 24 months, though published data from the U.S. Phase 2 studyfocuses more on trends and visual improvements rather than specific responderrates.
- iPPS pain outcomes were measured using validated OA endpoints (WOMAC Pain,Average Daily Pain), with robust placebo-controlled data.
- TG-C’s benefit appears longer in duration (24 months) but lacks detailed statisticalcomparisons and did not disclose pain responder analyses in the same format.
Paradigm (PAR) seems to have had better Phase 2 structural changes (relevant for DMOAD)
Kolon TissueGene's clinical trial schedule.. top-line data expected to come out in 2Q26
Korea Investment Securities Analyst Initiation report excerpt (Haehoo Wi Ph.D) 25 Mar 25![]()
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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6 | 91182 | 0.340 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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