SGH 0.00% 54.5¢ slater & gordon limited

This person was very negative about Quindell, page-8

  1. 11,116 Posts.
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    Well - should be grateful for all the negative publicity, as have been able to further top up. Funny that some commentators seem to think you should value SGH on cashflow, and not on expected profits. Why don't we value banks and insurance companies on cashflow too, and not on the value of their mortgages. If we valued TCL in that way, it would be worth far less than it is on the current DCF basis. SGH pays wages and court costs for a period of time before they get cashflow, and the more they invest now, the more they will get later. To value SGH's WIP on anything other than an actuarial basis would be silly IMO.

    I also find it funny that commentators are questioning SGH's ability to do due diligence on case files. Well they haven't had any fails so far. Valuing a bunch of case files is not that hard if you know what you are looking at. You need to evaluate the odds of success, and the discount the timing of cash flow. The accounts are audited as well. Looking at the desperate shape Quindells was in, I would be very surprised if SGH didn't get a total bargain. Quindells would have known what they were worth.

    Now based on my morningstar sheet - forecasted eps for 2017 is $1.023 per share. There might be a slight margin of safety there at 6x fc PE. Hilarious media input really, but I can see why, with Quindell's track record. However their case files are worth more in the hands of a competent manager I would think, and also in the hands of a company not trying to work both sides of a case (which somewhere I read Quindell's was trying to do in insurance).
 
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