As much as I would like the SP to jump to $3.70, I'm not sure that your assumptions are totally realistic.
50 sand companies? According to a summary on the National Advisory Council on Innovation (South Africa) website, 70% of the world's titania production is concentrated across just 4 companies. Out of around 5Mtpa production, RBM accounts for 20% alone. Bring on Corridor Sands and that is another 15-20%.
Whilst I don't know how many smelters there are..... with that sort of concentration of production, most of them would be very small. At 50 companies, the average production rate of the remaining 46 would be just 30,000tpa!!? You can't just assume that the world demand for titania will increase ten-fold (50 Corridor Sand equivalents) when current growth is several percent pa.
100 EARS/DRI plants.... that's a different story. I have no idea what the number would be. However ... considering the number of applications, the growth of HBI/DRI/EAF and pickling liquor opportunities, you may even be underestimating.
APG Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held