If anything, that graph shows the odds of getting above average rainfall to be twice that of below average rainfall.
And it predicts nothing about how far above or below.
Keep in mind that the kind of rainfall that causes dramatic flooding is not the sort of event that a model can predict. By it's very nature if it happens, nobody will be expecting it until they are up to their ankles in water (metaphorically speaking, I'm sure they could see the cloud move in).
So, you're right when you say the only thing we can do is wait and see. But keep in mind that wetter is twice as likely as dryer.
this the rainfall map of the past 12 months, page-4
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