this time may be different., page-2

I've given you a thumbs up, nursery for what I believe is a fine piece of analysis. I'd like to add one more salient fact that needs to be considered - not for the first time, but in the context of what you've written.

As for 1. Profit takers: There will be some. No doubt about it. But do we expect 10 million or 20 million shares traded as "profit taking?" I think that would be a bit high.

2. T+3 traders: Right again. There will be a certain number of these as well.

3. Friday: Perhaps the biggest factor. However Europe is up 1.5% now and the U.S. is poised for another big night with the Dow futures up 82 as I type. There will be the scaredy-cats, but there will also those who won't want to wave bye-bye to the ship as it sails off, so they might offset each other.

4. Tech traders try to predict lots of stuff. The question is whether they will do what their Bollinger bands tell them to, and if so, when? What you have written suggests to me and I hope others that fundamentals also actually play a role, and bands be damned...because the bands didn't warn people about the financial collapse in enough time for them to flee, and they won't predict tomorrow's weather either. However I like the tech commentators because they provide corroborative evidence for what those of us who trade on fundamentals already surmise.

Now my two cents: The news front for VPG is PREGNANT. Deals being made and finalised, debt arrangements and who knows what all going on behind the scenes...dividends? mergers? takeovers?. The company has told us for months that they aren't going to say anything until the full-yearly report, and that's what I still believe. So to exit now, you'd really just be going on a hunch.

I will assert again this fact: There will be those out there in various circles, and not necessarily official "insiders" who know what the gist if not the substance of what the report will tell us on Tuesday week. There are bankers and the wives and neighbours of those bankers...their barbers and masseurs, investors, McCabe and his entire cohort of associates, advisors, lawyers, bankers and so on. There are accountants and their husbands and wives and neighbours. Lots of people, if you believe in six degrees of separation. So with so many people having at least a sniff of what's going on out there, wouldn't you think that if the report was going to be dodgy that they would be selling rather than buying, or avoiding VPG? Makes sense, huh? Well, with no news at all and an ASX reply that outlines what I'm suggesting here - that there are many things in motion right now and people attached to those mechanisms, but that nothing is finalised, you would really have to wonder whether the jump is really due to a sector-related improvement.

Perhaps it is, and perhaps VPG is simply redressing a long-term imbalance. That's hard to say. But I put it to all, including the day traders: Why would you exit now when the patient is about to give birth? Asset sales report, financials, debt restructure and more are all just a short number of days away. My own opinion is that this factor will override all the other ones, and that the price will at the very least hold up and probably rise some more.

Other opinions, as long as they are based upon reason are always welcome! Cheers.