Interesting that they actually tip that US oil drillers might reduce expenditure by 30%. I would suggest this is more than factored in to the SP ATM. Excuse my rubbery numbers, but since oil started coming off the SP is down about 30% to 40%, and the AUD is down about 15%, arguably factoring in something like 50% in lost profit expectations in NPV. I suspect that cashflow will turn higher than expected without the cap ex and takeovers of the past.
Re Cashflow:
Over the last five or six years, cap ex has been about 60% of NPAT, and depreciation has been about half of cap ex. I suspect you could easily improve free cashflow by $60m per annum via lower cap ex (or more). There will be less dilution if there are no big takeovers/crap raises as well (and currently ALQ stock doesn't look great as acquisition currency to my eyes). So that $900m in borrowings looks like it will be very easily taken care of, and dividends don't really need to be slashed as much as reduced profits might suggest.
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