Comments on the "How fast" thread about the big boys playing games encourages me to put up a post about,ostensibly,Cerberus,but also about Phoenix,ROC etc.
I thought by now somebody might have picked up on CVNs comments about a SINGLE partner for Cerberus.
A high % of market followers make fundamental assumptions that the big players play ducks and drakes with the little guys (thats CVN here)-taint necessarily,or even nomally,so.
To cut to the chase we now know CVN isnt going to have a go at a Cerberus drill on its own despite one scarcely likely to put even a small dent in the cash .
That is not how the game is played.
Another misconception is that there is a high probability of a tiddler (CVN) being able to extract a more-than -full price from a much larger company.It scarcely ever happens in the real world.
Again to cut to the chase this is my view of how the game is played between the small explorer and the much larger company,with particular reference to Cerberus.
The first variable is already in place per the QR-ONE partner only. Almost no chance of CVN eventually being able to play one partner of against another.
This is how I see Cerberus unfolding:
1.No drilling by CVN off its own bat for 100% of the spoils.
2.One partner only-no playing games with that partner when things start to look really good.
3.That partner almost certainly a company of repute,many times the size of CVN and probably an O and G OZ company.
4.That company also insisting on dealing with a companyof high repute (thats us with our high cash balance,no borrowings at all (thats been a CVN r ule since at least 2000 under 3 management regimes and weel thought of in the O and G world)
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