Cosmo, But it has to be a calculated risk, and not cover all...

Cosmo,

But it has to be a calculated risk, and not cover all possibilities, it would simply be too expensive to.

OK to start with you have the 40% POS which by itself means it couldn't be worth more than an extra 40% on the original drill. Derate that for the prob of gas vs oil, and for needing to go so much deeper and you quickly get to saying it's only worth spending a few % more to cover these bases, yet it might be quite expensive too. You all obviously need to derate the worth for perhaps finding you've drilled in an unsuitable location,lol!

It is usually not worth making ANY pre investment provision for testing an offshore exploratory well such as Roc-1 was. On that basis may be a fairer criticism would be of them wasting the extra pre investment they did make?

I am much more comfortable with the drill outcome having had a chance to digest some interpretations such as Finder's and our own CEO's, and can see in my own mind that follow up drilling should both cour and be well warranted.

As for buying with the poo acting like a falling knife? Well how much further can oil fall, and can it really be this low when we need to make the big decisions like FID? How much more than a 20 to 25% discount to cash do bargain hunting folk require? Another 5 or 10 briefly perhaps? Surely the most impatient of traders have had a chance to exit by now? Sure there's not much yet to hurry would be buyers who might feel spoils for alternative bargains atm, but I think I am calling a bottom passed for both the CVN sp and the poo. Just hunches. Not predicting any strong rebound to either.

EL