Yep, the expected revenue and profit from the path of commercialization for the HX is highly unknown. So yes, if the commercialization phase is part of what people are calling Fundamental Anaylsis, then I agree. Hard to say it is cooked.
I was over on the RFX forum this morning catching up on posts. Like FBR, single product/Australian company, that is further down the commercialisation phase than FBR, but had a lot of trouble in that commercialisation phase. Watching both companies in parallel is an interesting exercise.
A quote from Simon H.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/accounting-practices.4519525/page-15?post_id=36369809
"Its much harder to make a real thing and sell it than to just talk about it, especially with a product that has no direct equal, and that nobody else makes. This is not an easy path. This is not a low risk exercise - and it has never been framed as being easy."
I am hoping that when/if CAT binds to FBR with the Strategic Alliance that the risks of problems with HX commercialisation are much reduced compared to RFX. But time will tell. Large corporates such as CAT can still stuff things up.
Have a read of this massive CAT mistake.They got taken for a ride.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmontlake/2013/02/13/cat-scammed-how-a-u-s-corporation-blew-half-a-billion-in-china/#6161af6078f5
Some interesting comments here about CAT
https://www.glassdoor.com.au/Reviews/Caterpillar-upper-management-Reviews-EI_IE137.0,11_KH12,28.htm
So it will be far from 100% de risked after January if CAT signs up.
Nearing the end of delays and with much anticipation about entering the new phase, it is a shame that no one from FBR is prepared to engage with people on HC like Simon does.
