I have not spoken to the management but feel their chance of...

I have not spoken to the management but feel their chance of going bankrupt is a lot less than 30%. I do expect the hedging ratio to be broken as at 31/12/2008 but given the distribution cancellation and continuing solid earnings they may be able to substantially repay the derivative contract within the 90 days. I guess it all depends how well the business continues operationally, there has been no suggestion so far of substantial deterioration (>15%). The picture will be clearer in Jan/Feb 2009. There is a substantial upside here if the markets rally a bit (which is a possibility) and yen/dollar reverse a little we may as well escape the hedging trap for another 6 months. A pullback in dollar/yen and a small rally is quite possible IMO. Very high risk, very high rewards potentially here IMO.