thought about this stock!!!, page-10

I have had several thoughts about this stock - most of them unchanging - if you are interested to read all the numerical analysis, just search for posts by me - most of them will be here.

To summarise in any event:

- I have been accumulating since mid 2008.
- I have participated in all rights issues since then
- the value of the stock (taking account of discounted rights issues) is LARGELY UNCHANGED over my investment horizon
- the intrinsics of the company are far better now than they were due to a more stable balance sheet
- the exclusion of all other earnings sources apart from rental over the past period has increased the earnings multiple to a level I am uncomfortable with for such a non-growth business
- I personally am unable to place an accurate valuation on the assets, therefore I value the company based on real ability to earn repeatedly and do not factor in at this point asset price fluctuations.

I am no longer accumulating the stock. I consider it fair value at the moment. Its yield however is nearly double that of a bank, and I believe that the beefed up balance sheet, and lack of news / ship changing directions along with a simplified business has attracted stability. This is good for continued yield.

Main items that may alter the SP in the short-medium term are unchanged and include:
- the big 3 shareholders wanting more or less of the company
- a favorable/unfavorable earnings report (I expect that the company will manage to artificially increase its earnings significantly this period as a result of various hedging and currency plays - personally I ignore such movements, but the schools of fish looking for a feed may not)
- higher/lower than expected sales/acquisitions of assets

The restructuring of the number of shares etc may have some impact but really should be minimal and is what I call noise.

Bottom line: Term deposit with better terms, possibility of capital upside, lesser possibility (in my view) of downside.

Feens.