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Chrislechat

1,381 Posts.

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28/07/20

13:49

Post #: 46125886
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Originally posted by Devilmaycare: ↑

I copied this of a post HSP wrote a week ago
"Alumina (AWC) +2.37%: joint venture partner Alcoa came out with their quarterly earnings pre-market and it was a good read-through for the ASX listed Alumina. The announcement shows $US108.5m has already been passed through to AWC for their stake in Alcoa’s Alumina business with one more cash sweep expected before the half year results are announced. This already accounts for a half year dividend of US3.4cps, a ~10% beat to what the market was predicting even before the final top up. The figures point to a bottoming of the alumina commodity price in the 2Q while production remains robust. We like AWC, and own it in the Growth Portfolio"
It's basically saying the first distribution of $108 million accounts for a US3.4cps and awaiting the next distribution befdore 25th Aug say about US 3 cps which I believe will equate to approx AUS 10 cps fully franked. To me this is a screaming buy considering the announcement will be made on the 25th Aug.
The known negatives is the AUS212 million fine impending from the ATO and the write off of the Portland smelter which may cut the dividend, but I am guessing these losses will occur further in the future not now.
The only other negative I know of is the rising AUD against the US but with these heighten Sino-US tensions, I can only see a rising USD!
I am accumulating at anything sub $1.65 because in a month the yearly report will come out,
With the 3 month contract for AL on the LME web page" https://www.lme.com/en-GB/Metals/Non-ferrous/Aluminium#tabIndex=0", being $1700 a tonne coming of the COVID lows of $1445 a tonne.
IMHO, the aluminium price will only rise from hereon. This stock is locked in with the aluminium price.

I am expecting this stock to go above $1.90 a share if anything above a AUD 9 cent fully franked dividend come Aug 25th.
DYOR!

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Very comprehensive thank you.
Pretty much everything I've already known and am weighing at the moment.

I'm slightly more negative about the australian/US dollar, there is still huge potential for the AUD to climb depending on who decides to poke the big Chinese bear first and hardest. I'm betting on trump pulling the trigger first as a face saving exercise and a final screw you, obviously Australia will quickly follow suit and then potentially half the world but this probably belongs in politics.

AWC Price at posting: $1.64 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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