Antisense's Duchenne's muscular dystrophy program has somehow snuck underneath investors noses and looks to be grossly undervalued. Here's what we know:
ATL1102 has achieved successful phase 2 results with a strong efficacy signal that is clinically significant.
- Performance of Upper Limb (PUL) 2.0 scores show a mean improvement of 0.9 points over 24 weeks compared to the typical decrease of 2.2 points / yr seen in a comparable group of non-ambulant patients. (1)
- 3/9 patients stabilised according to their PUL 2.0 score, with another 4/9 showing improvement, and 2/9 having disease progression.
- On ATL1102, Grip strength has increased by a mean value of 0.2kg, and pinch strength has stabilised showing no change. A study in European DMD non ambulant patients show a mean decrease in grip strength of 0.39kg and pinch strength of 0.08kg over a year. (2)
Looking at the overall picture, we see a drug with a well understood mechanism of action that looks to have a clinically meaningful impact on established endpoints (PUL 2.0, Myopinch). Essentially, these endpoints will be the same endpoints used in the registration trial.
At the current enterprise value of sub $20m, the risk-reward calculus is quite compelling. There are currently 3 FDA approved drugs for DMD selling in 2019.
Exondys-51 (2019 revenue of $381m USD)
Translarna (2019 revenue of $190m USD)
Emflaza (2019 revenue of $101m USD)
Essentially these are all $1-3bn drugs - and Antisense's ATL1102 is only one trial away from achieving the same outcomes both medically and from a economic value standpoint.
Now with AEF selling, it looks to be a good time to stock up.
Comments and criticisms welcome!
References:
1. Mayhew, A., Mazzone, E. S., Eagle, M., Duong, T., Ash, M., Decostre, V., ... & Bianco, F. (2013). Development of the Performance of the U pper L imb module for D uchenne muscular dystrophy. Developmental Medicine & Child Neurology, 55(11), 1038-1045.
2. Ricotti, V., Selby, V., Ridout, D., Domingos, J., Decostre, V., Mayhew, A., ... & Jansen, M. (2019). Respiratory and upper limb function as outcome measures in ambulant and non-ambulant subjects with Duchenne muscular dystrophy: A prospective multicentre study. Neuromuscular Disorders, 29(4), 261-268.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Thoughts on ATL1102 for DMD
Antisense's Duchenne's muscular dystrophy program has somehow...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 5 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add PER (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
7.9¢ |
Change
0.005(6.76%) |
Mkt cap ! $71.22M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
7.5¢ | 7.9¢ | 7.5¢ | $65.48K | 860.8K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 254337 | 7.4¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
7.9¢ | 411992 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 254337 | 0.074 |
2 | 111973 | 0.073 |
2 | 63400 | 0.072 |
2 | 90000 | 0.070 |
1 | 100333 | 0.066 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.079 | 411992 | 3 |
0.080 | 243231 | 2 |
0.081 | 100000 | 1 |
0.082 | 75174 | 2 |
0.083 | 110520 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 07/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
PER (ASX) Chart |