Good replies so far, thanks BlackGold and Hardmano
BG, in part it is the significance of Banda that you talk about that rings a few alarm bells - Courbine was in a similar category last year - a different play type: Cretaceous, deeper water vs Chinguetti Tertiary, moderately deep. Banda may be the same sands as Chinguetti, but being in relatively shallow water further inshore makes it just that bit different again. I wonder if it was chosen by WPL as much to screeen a different play type and help with imminent relinquishment decisions / forward planning, as for its intrinsic potential. If so, that makes it less of a "sure thing" than another diapir structure in the same geological setting as Chinguetti (plenty of time to drill those in future years). Also, if Ching-4-2 production test is good, the market might start getting ahead of itself regarding Banda's chances, just as it did with Courbine.
As for HDR going $1.20+ if Banda hits, I fully agree. But perhaps it would take a day or two to get there giving plenty of opportunity to buy back in if you take a risk management strategy of selling down pre-results.
Anyway, thanks again for the input, more welcome.
HDR
hardman resources limited
