thoughts on cnp

Hi all

I just recently aquire my CNP shares @ an average price of 6 cents. At that price i have decided they must be just about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

My thinking was as follows:-

So from the banks point of view they have a customer who is paying them interest. So they are making money……

However the customer owes to much money and it is making them nervous and they need to be refinanced. So the decision process for the banks is a simple one.

Option1: The banks are sure the customer can keep paying the interest so it is fairly safe so they come to a refinancing agreement.
Option2:The banks are not sure the customer can keep paying the interest: - So there are then 2 ways to go
Option2A: The banks think they can cover the loans thru selling everything and decide this is safer way to go
Option2B: The banks don’t think they can cover the loans thru selling everything so they are looking at losing money doing that……..So if that is the case they should be willing to take the refinancing risk, as if they are going to lose money then it is better to take a risk that cnp can continue to meet there repayments. To refiance all the banks need to do is sign a new agreement.....

The only problem could be is if the banks have liabilites that they have to meet and have no option but to call in there debt with a loss and all.

So if option 1 or 2B occurs then CNP share price should recover. If option 2A occurs then that means the bank is fairly sure it can get the money out thru asset sales. So for me to get my 6 cents a share back i would just need $60M left over after every thing is liquidated.... that is only 0.375% above there liabilites. Sure it might take 12 months or more to get that out... but even with the worst case there is a chance of breaking even or possibly make a little bit..... and for that not to happen they would have to sell the asset at more than a 20% discount to book value.

Well that was my thinking anyway.....

Did i miss something critical?

Cheers