Setting aside whatever is happening with Vale, the market mostly does not respond to incremental changes in AVB Copper JORC. In fact it often punishes AVB with a drop in SP roughly commensurate with the rise in JORC.
So the SP has gone down to a ridiculous level... well below the 3% copper in ground value.
Whether the SP is being manipulated down by evil dark forces or not who knows, but the Directors have reached into their own pockets recently and put their own money in, which is no small thing. They are not doing that to lose, even if it is also meant as a show of real support and commitment..
So really the Conceicao Program offers an SIR type opportunity to investors that is NOT necessarily there with Pedra Branca and Antas for now.
I seem to recall Conceicao was obtained in the face of some competition for it, rather than as a dud or by default. Certainly since then the outstanding due diligence has validated the procurement decision and shown it to be quite exciting as a pure exploratory PUNT, so it is no white elephant at all. It is VERY VERY prospective.
The source of the Super-Gossan AV-9778 has to be there somewhere. AVB has done their own soil sampling program and has a good local picture of the area they are to drill.
Lots of superlatives in the announcement of 14th Feb 2011.
"Highly prospective, outstanding due diligence results, strongly anomalous base and precious metal values, significant potential for discovery, strong and coincident local copper and nickel anomalies" and more.
With the current twitchy market, as per SIR, all it takes is ONE hit of 30 - 50m into AV-9778 stuff and you have a 30 multiplier of SP at least.. Don't worry about JORC... who cares. It is what MIGHT be there and not what IS there that drives the SP in the very short term.
So if anyone is looking for the next SIR, well this could be it if you choose to look at it in this way.
At least the downside is near zero. If Conceicao fails (as per Touro and Agua Boa) and that is exploration, well you still have your 8c shares.
The environment is good. 75% ownership. Top-class Geo's to re-interpret all past and current data.
So as a small drilling exercise, I am saying it cannot be under-estimated as to its potential to zoom the SP way up.
What are the chances of a bonanza? One in six, One in ten? One in twelve? Still not bad odds all things considered. The ground is undrilled.
It is worth thinking about at least.
AVB Price at posting:
8.2¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
