I see that there are 3 parts to the STM share price potential...

I see that there are 3 parts to the STM share price potential for 2025.

1. Fair value for current position. This is what the MST report is covering and lands on a peer comparison view of $40 per resource oz which, on a fully diluted basis comes in at 2.3cps.

2. Implied value of exploration potential. MST mentions $5 per oz at the bottom end of their target would equate to a further 1.3cps (+$78m). In reality, this value will be determined by the development partner discussions underway and the eventual shape of a deal - both from a starting point intrinsic value perspective and market interpretation as to what the deal means in terms of pace of development.

3. Limon resource. This is the interesting one for me (and particularly if a development partner deal includes Limon and so an accelerated process to define that resource and pursue development). First cab is defining an initial resource (chasing circa 1moz), then the pathway to take that resource through the assessment gates to a PFS and development decision. As MST note, this could be a reasonably cost-effective development (US$250m) and if generating 100koz per annum (let's assume for simple math, at US$1,000/oz margin), then generating US$100m per annum of cash flow and a less than 3 year pay-back. An additional 1moz resource alone in 2025 adds a further 0.6cps.

So, we have a range of 2.3cps "as is" per MST, then to 4.2cps (2.3 + 1.3 + 0.6) and potentially higher if the development partner deal puts a higher figure than implied in the above on Brama or EP.

Personally, I think that the right deal has the potential to see STM nudge at least the 4cps mark this year as the market starts to focus on their assets rather than position itself for the next capital raise. Any deal will certainly materially move the dial from where it currently languishes as again in moves thinking away from solely that of cash and capacity to advance one or both of its assets.