AUL 0.00% 28.5¢ austar gold limited

thoughts on mt m trial, page-32

  1. 2,403 Posts.
    Yeah, it's not a surprise to see everyone excited, hoping for more green days after the next - i think it's a good thing.

    Some things I've noticed:

    Since Dec 22 last year only 17 out of the 43 trading days have been green. That's less then 40%.

    Still, the share price is up 240%+ from its low. So a few red days is fine.

    If you look at a chart, draw the major fibonacci retracement from the high on 5 Jan 2011 (29c) to the low of 15 Dec 2011 (4.8c). You'll see that the retracement levels perfectly spell out the support and resistance levels we've seen.

    The 23.6% retracement point is 10.51c, and we saw 10.5c act as resistance at first, and then support once it broke.

    The 38.2% retracement point is 14.04c, and again we saw 14c act as resistance at first, and then support once it broke.

    The 50% retracement point is, you guessed it, 16.9c so we're seeing 17c act as resistance. I thought for a second today we might see it break and hold above, but not to be. Oh well, it will come along soon enough.

    fyi, the next retracement point (61.8%) is 19.76c, hence my ST target of 20c being next up.

    Friday and today were also significant for another reason. There is a major long-term downtrend line that draws from the high back on 17 June 2008 (56.5c) and through the high on 5 Jan 2011 (29c) and also, coincidently enough, through the high on 8 Feb 2012 (17c).

    This major downtrend line was breached last Thursday but it failed to close above it. It has now opened and closed above this line for the last two days.

    Add to that all the other things we've seen (golden cross, big volumes etc etc), plus all that we know that's coming up on the fundamentals side, and well, this is why we're all excited!
 
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