Comments: Williston Basin Bakken Shale The recent 30 and 60 day production results from SEAs Bakken wells give us increased confi dence on SEAs shale oil development program ahead in the Bakken. Average production rate results to-date include: Cash fl ow from an average 924 boepd for 60 days nets SEA ~US$4m (@ US$85/bbl, post royalties and taxes) suggesting a 6-9 month payback based on well costs averaging US$8.5m excellent economics.
SEA currently has 6 rigs drilling 1 well per month on its Bakken acreage at 5-10% average non-operating interest this activity is set to increase by up to 50% with new rigs arriving in the next few months. The Helis operated Dodge 4-6-7H (SEA 6.4%) well has been outstanding, one of the best in the Bakken after 90 days. The strong average plateau fl ow rate between the 60 and 90 days at ~1,350 boepd (almost all oil) is particularly pleasing. The Andrecovich 5-17/16H (SEA 7.1%) has also been very strong with a higher 30 day average fl ow rate than the Dodge well at 1,419 boepd. The difference between short lateral (~4,500 ft lateral, 10-15 frac stages, US$5-6m gross cost) and long lateral (~9,000 ft lateral, 18-30 frac stages,US$8-8.5m gross cost) wells is evident just from the early stages of SEAs development program. Long lateral wells will hold 1,280 acres and look to be roughly double the results of the short lateral wells which hold 640 acres. This bodes well for the robust economics of the long lateral wells but it is still early days in determining the decline profi les and ultimate reserve recovery of each type of well. Our production forecasts are in line with company guidance at this stage but incorporate a six month lag whilst we wait to see what sort of impact the horizontal Niobrara wells will net next CY. Our cash fl ow forecast is $34m for FY12 healthy for a $113m EV company with forecast production and earnings growth ahead. DJ Basin Niobrara Shale SEA recently sold ~ 5,000 acres of its DJ Basin acreage, Colorado, focused on the Niobrara acreage for US$8.7m and a 3.9% overriding royalty to Noble Energy Inc. SEA reduced its interest in the Twister prospect from a 60% interest to 15%. The consideration was US$8.1m cash and US$0.6m in carry through future drilling. The cash portion is subject to further adjustment following DD to be completed in the next 30 days. SEA has also established an Area of Mutual Interest (AMI) with Noble. Noble is a leading operator of horizontal development wells in the region. The sale represents ~10% of SEAs DJ Basin acreage and ~25% of its Niobrara acreage position. SEA retains ~13,000 net Niobrara acres.
Our production forecasts are in line with company guidance at this stage but incorporate a six month lag whilst we wait to see what sort of impact the horizontal Niobrara wells will net next CY. Our cash fl ow forecast is $34m for FY12 healthy for a $113m EV company with forecast production and earnings growth ahead. DJ Basin Niobrara Shale SEA recently sold ~ 5,000 acres of its DJ Basin acreage, Colorado, focused on the Niobrara acreage for US$8.7m and a 3.9% overriding royalty to Noble Energy Inc. SEA reduced its interest in the Twister prospect from a 60% interest to 15%. The consideration was US$8.1m cash and US$0.6m in carry through future drilling. The cash portion is subject to further adjustment following DD to be completed in the next 30 days. SEA has also established an Area of Mutual Interest (AMI) with Noble. Noble is a leading operator of horizontal development wells in the region. The sale represents ~10% of SEAs DJ Basin acreage and ~25% of its Niobrara acreage position. SEA retains ~13,000 net Niobrara acres.