I think it's actually quite possible that the dividend will...

I think it's actually quite possible that the dividend will fall. If you go to slide 31 of the AGM presentation on 25 November, you will find financial data on SHV in a neat table for the last 10 years. The 2016 dividend of 46 cents per share compares to reported earnings per share of 46.7 and underlying earnings per share of 38.5. This presents an unusually high payout ratio for SHV compared to prior years. I.e. I think that it was unusual that the dividend was not cut more than from 50 cents to 46 cents, given the significant fall in earnings per share between 2015 and 2016.

Don't get me wrong - I think there will be a healthy dividend, I think that earnings per share will be up on 2016, and I think that this is a buy at the current price - but the dividend may well fall...