What are people's thoughts on these cashflow figures?
Key asssumptions, worst case scenario:
- 6.0% margin after FY2022 - historically 7.0%
- 2.8% lost / bad debts - most recent FY2022Q2 update had 2.8% - historically closer to 2%)
- 5.0% interest rate on borrowings (that is 2.2% higher interest rates than FY2021, say 9 rate rises this year)
- TTV and Receiveables scale at similar rates in FY2022 and FY2023, then decay as expansion markets mature
- SOI increases on avg 5% a year, adding 160m shares in 4 years, because why not
- No other major acquisitions or structural changes
- Share based employee benefits continue at similar CASH level and increase with headcount, at around $250m/year
- No adjustment for additional revenue streams or new markets such as Zip Business
- Banking fees remain the same
- No major change in admin / depreciation / taxation witchcraft etc
Couple of years of the same, profit in FY2025, then explosive returns with further scaling. Net debt reducing in a few years. Kind of like your spec miner applying for a new mining licence, not so bad.
Now for another scenario: as above but
- 6.9% margin through FY2022 and following, similar to historical averages, and possible with the right customer base, partnerships / market positions
- 2.2% lost / bad debts, closer in line with historical averages
- 4% interest rate on borrowings over next 4 years, still 1.2% above FY2021
In this best case scenario:
- Profitable in FY2024
- In five years, no net debt and ~$60 price target
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