Thoughts on the Five year outlook

What are people's thoughts on these cashflow figures?

Key asssumptions, worst case scenario:

• 6.0% margin after FY2022 - historically 7.0%
• 2.8% lost / bad debts - most recent FY2022Q2 update had 2.8% - historically closer to 2%)
• 5.0% interest rate on borrowings (that is 2.2% higher interest rates than FY2021, say 9 rate rises this year)
• TTV and Receiveables scale at similar rates in FY2022 and FY2023, then decay as expansion markets mature
• SOI increases on avg 5% a year, adding 160m shares in 4 years, because why not
• No other major acquisitions or structural changes
• Share based employee benefits continue at similar CASH level and increase with headcount, at around $250m/year
• No adjustment for additional revenue streams or new markets such as Zip Business
• Banking fees remain the same
• No major change in admin / depreciation / taxation witchcraft etc

Couple of years of the same, profit in FY2025, then explosive returns with further scaling. Net debt reducing in a few years. Kind of like your spec miner applying for a new mining licence, not so bad.

Now for another scenario: as above but

• 6.9% margin through FY2022 and following, similar to historical averages, and possible with the right customer base, partnerships / market positions
• 2.2% lost / bad debts, closer in line with historical averages
• 4% interest rate on borrowings over next 4 years, still 1.2% above FY2021

In this best case scenario:

• Profitable in FY2024
• In five years, no net debt and ~$60 price target